My GUESS is Mr. Obama will be re-elected by an Electoral College vote of 281 to 257. My bias is to a larger margin of victory than a smaller one, maybe 303 to 235.
Ohio could be the linchpin of the election, meaning whoever Ohio falls to becomes the president.
My guess is subject to change at any time, is based on many assumptions, and stems from an analysis of the data and is not necessarily an indication of my personal preference. The key word is “GUESS” and not “prediction”.
There are nine swing states in the 2012 presidential election. A swing state by definition means their elections are very close and could go either way. As a result, there is potentially only a small margin of victory for whoever gets elected. If so, there are several intriguing possibilities that could occur:
A need to take a while to verify the close results in at least one state that could delay knowing the outcome until well into the night and even next day
A recount in at least one state that could delay knowing the outcome for perhaps several weeks (last happened in 2000)
A tie in the Electoral College vote (happened in 1824 and 1800), which would cause much consternation in part because many Americans don’t understand the actual process of electing a president and the reason for the Electoral College
Making guesses or predictions is just for fun. It doesn’t matter whether one is right or wrong, and it is completely irrelevant as to who calls outcomes first (I’m talking to you, news media folks!). What is far more important is that Americans exercise their rights in choosing their government.
And for the many who are disgusted with politics as they are today, remember that you are not limited to choosing only between the candidates from the two major political parties (or the two wings of the major political party, if you prefer). Remember, if even 10% of voters cast a ballot for a non-Republocrat, that would send a powerful message to the political class.
So please vote.